**** this **** game
I'm thinking of adopting that as my new nickname, I seem to be saying it a lot to myself recently.
Went back on Wednesday night and made another £2500. Decided to play a few 6pacs aswell which I actually enjoyed and made a small profit on. Had another good session Thursday morning, not much in the way of hands but made £2200 nonetheless. I still had the feeling that I'm on a miserable run of cards, feel like I'm literally grinding away at the moment which isn't enjoyable at all. Even in Dublin I didn't actually see a lot of hands, I didn't get a big pair til the final table and AK didn't come til the very end of the first day. This feeling is made worse when I see the same "golden" players hitting the nuts every day and still getting paid off, and just not missing draws. It used to be bandied round as a joke, but it has reached ridiculous proportions now.
And then came the slaying which I've been due for about 2 weeks with these cards. Logged back on Thursday afternoon hoping to add to the morning's profits. The game was super tight, so after a while I decided to make a move on a board reading 7 6 4 3 against a preflop raiser. He decided 1010 was too good to pass and I bought in for another £2000. Bad timing or perhaps a bad move, but at the time I was 99% sure he was passing. Then an interesting hand, I re-raised to £280 preflop with JJ and Rayvon calls from the big blind after previously flat calling the initial £80 raise. Flop comes 6 7 8, 2 spades. He checks, I bet £600 into the £700 pot. My hand feels very vulnerable but checking isn't an option after re-raising preflop, I have to more or less commit myself. He moves allin instantly, which normally means flush draw. I call, he shows 54s with a redraw to the flush. Maybe I should have passed but the only hands I can put him on the 3 pairs which make a set or a flush draw. Wrong on all counts.
Build my stack back up to £3k, only to get knocked down again. Raise preflop with 88, flop comes 10 8 3, 2 diamonds. A bet of £80 before me, Rayvon (whop is sitting with £5k) calls, I make it £220. Rayvon now makes it £560 (ish), I re-raise to £1200. Rayvon now moves in. I have the 2nd nuts at the moment, if he has 1010 I pay him. I call and he shows an offsuit 97 for the straight draw. Next card out is a J and it's goodnight. A little while later I lose another stack with AQ v AA on an AQx flop before coming off. That session leaves me £4000 down for the day and pretty disgruntled.
Friday was then pretty much decided by blind luck, with unfortunately wasn't with me. Got lucky in one pot, on a 10 high flop with 2 diamonds, I get my £2000 stack in the middle with Jd8d. Turns out I am up against top set (who has bet the pot on the flop after raising preflop). He is a rock, so I figure the only way to ever get anything out of him is to gamble, it's not like he's going to play marginal hands whereby I can eke a bit from him. I miss the flush draw but hit a runner runner straight.
But then it all goes wrong. Lose a big pot to Ben Grundy with AJ v AK on an AKJxx board. Then lose a big pot with top pair top kicker against top pair and a flush draw. Then lose a £5k pot with KK v 2nd pair v flush draw against the same player. The others I cannot remember the exact details of, but I didn't manage to hit a set all day, and lost the majority of the "races" I was in, 80% of which I was leading. £4000 down again and very very pissed off. If my set holds up on Thursday and my hands hold up some of the time n Friday then I'm actually in good profit for the week. I've come to realise that this isn't actually as much of a skill game as everyone makes out, some players can have a small edge overtime but at the end of the day, if they hit they hit and sometimes there's not a lot you can do about it. Roughly £8000 down for the week, and feeling like I would rather walk over broken glass than have to keep playing this game.
*************************************************************************************
Update. Managed to shake off any tilt I was feeling and logged back on. 3rd hand in I'm dealt AA on the button. Not a good sign when things aren't going well I know. 1 limper, cutoff raises to £40, I make it £120. 3 callers, flop comes Q 4 4. Checked round to me, I bet £400. Small blind thinks for a while and then calls, everyone else passes. Well it's unlikely he can have QQ, and near on impossible he can have a 4 in my eyes. I put him on just a Q and after he checks the 6 on the turn to me, I check too, hoping it now looks like I've got AK. River is a J, and he moves allin for £1400 into the £1200 pot. I call, he shows QQ. Jesus am I on tilt now.
Went back on Wednesday night and made another £2500. Decided to play a few 6pacs aswell which I actually enjoyed and made a small profit on. Had another good session Thursday morning, not much in the way of hands but made £2200 nonetheless. I still had the feeling that I'm on a miserable run of cards, feel like I'm literally grinding away at the moment which isn't enjoyable at all. Even in Dublin I didn't actually see a lot of hands, I didn't get a big pair til the final table and AK didn't come til the very end of the first day. This feeling is made worse when I see the same "golden" players hitting the nuts every day and still getting paid off, and just not missing draws. It used to be bandied round as a joke, but it has reached ridiculous proportions now.
And then came the slaying which I've been due for about 2 weeks with these cards. Logged back on Thursday afternoon hoping to add to the morning's profits. The game was super tight, so after a while I decided to make a move on a board reading 7 6 4 3 against a preflop raiser. He decided 1010 was too good to pass and I bought in for another £2000. Bad timing or perhaps a bad move, but at the time I was 99% sure he was passing. Then an interesting hand, I re-raised to £280 preflop with JJ and Rayvon calls from the big blind after previously flat calling the initial £80 raise. Flop comes 6 7 8, 2 spades. He checks, I bet £600 into the £700 pot. My hand feels very vulnerable but checking isn't an option after re-raising preflop, I have to more or less commit myself. He moves allin instantly, which normally means flush draw. I call, he shows 54s with a redraw to the flush. Maybe I should have passed but the only hands I can put him on the 3 pairs which make a set or a flush draw. Wrong on all counts.
Build my stack back up to £3k, only to get knocked down again. Raise preflop with 88, flop comes 10 8 3, 2 diamonds. A bet of £80 before me, Rayvon (whop is sitting with £5k) calls, I make it £220. Rayvon now makes it £560 (ish), I re-raise to £1200. Rayvon now moves in. I have the 2nd nuts at the moment, if he has 1010 I pay him. I call and he shows an offsuit 97 for the straight draw. Next card out is a J and it's goodnight. A little while later I lose another stack with AQ v AA on an AQx flop before coming off. That session leaves me £4000 down for the day and pretty disgruntled.
Friday was then pretty much decided by blind luck, with unfortunately wasn't with me. Got lucky in one pot, on a 10 high flop with 2 diamonds, I get my £2000 stack in the middle with Jd8d. Turns out I am up against top set (who has bet the pot on the flop after raising preflop). He is a rock, so I figure the only way to ever get anything out of him is to gamble, it's not like he's going to play marginal hands whereby I can eke a bit from him. I miss the flush draw but hit a runner runner straight.
But then it all goes wrong. Lose a big pot to Ben Grundy with AJ v AK on an AKJxx board. Then lose a big pot with top pair top kicker against top pair and a flush draw. Then lose a £5k pot with KK v 2nd pair v flush draw against the same player. The others I cannot remember the exact details of, but I didn't manage to hit a set all day, and lost the majority of the "races" I was in, 80% of which I was leading. £4000 down again and very very pissed off. If my set holds up on Thursday and my hands hold up some of the time n Friday then I'm actually in good profit for the week. I've come to realise that this isn't actually as much of a skill game as everyone makes out, some players can have a small edge overtime but at the end of the day, if they hit they hit and sometimes there's not a lot you can do about it. Roughly £8000 down for the week, and feeling like I would rather walk over broken glass than have to keep playing this game.
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Update. Managed to shake off any tilt I was feeling and logged back on. 3rd hand in I'm dealt AA on the button. Not a good sign when things aren't going well I know. 1 limper, cutoff raises to £40, I make it £120. 3 callers, flop comes Q 4 4. Checked round to me, I bet £400. Small blind thinks for a while and then calls, everyone else passes. Well it's unlikely he can have QQ, and near on impossible he can have a 4 in my eyes. I put him on just a Q and after he checks the 6 on the turn to me, I check too, hoping it now looks like I've got AK. River is a J, and he moves allin for £1400 into the £1200 pot. I call, he shows QQ. Jesus am I on tilt now.
posted by Dpommo at 3:05 PM
16 Comments:
keep it cool man, its not only that you play well when you win and theyre lucky when you lose.
as you say margins are quite small and when some players keep hitting and winning 3 k pots it takes forever to grind it back.
take a break for the weekend and have some fun will all the dough you have!
this is how it goes and ive had a bad streak like yours for several months.....one wonders if it will ever be possible to win again.
Everytime you say in your blog you hit a bad run i seem to be having one at the same time! As goes for the good runs! Cant catch a break at the moment after bout 2 weeks of decent profits, mostly gone in 2 days! Obviously not the stakes you're playing at but same site.
Its annoying when you get AA and you automatically think damn i hope i dont lose, shove it allin and get beat by AK.
Like you say tho **** this **** game!
I havent kept track, but including the tourney win, u must be in excess of £150k+ up on the year, if not more. Losing £8k is not a bad run. It's not even a start of a bad run at the stakes and style of games you are playing. I think you are a very good player but you don't have much experience of the meta-game factors, especially as you have been running well, at least judging from your blog where losing a couple of K gets you into the doldrums. Speak to people you know and hear about real bad runs. I know Gryko had one that made me burst into tears him just telling it. I'm aware this looks a bit like envy, and envy may be a part of it. But saying things like I quit after a couple of hours because my luck is sure to turn as a literary device is one thing, saying it and *meaning* it is altogether different and something you should be concerned about.
gl
Dave D
Dave,
I know what you are saying, it does look as though I just throw my toys out of the pram whenever something doesn't go my way. 8k (now 10k) might not sound like a bad run, but it's only 8k because I haven't played on tilt and have still been winning fairly big pots even when I haven't had the cards. Regardless of the amount of money lost, it is a bad run of cards and breaks in my eyes.
I say that I leave before luck has a chance to change, because if I win two odds on shots in a session, it is likely that I'm due to lose one. I prefer to come off and not let it happen, particuarly once I have built up a big stack and more of my money is on offer. That has happened in the past, and by the time the odds fail to hold up it is a £8k pot.
Ty for the advice though, I know that I do need to change something in my mentality when it comes to dealing with losses and beats.
Dave
"because if I win two odds on shots in a session, it is likely that I'm due to lose one"
This is bad. Very bad. Not only is it not true, it is not how a guy making his living playing poker should be thinking.
If you don't "fix" this part of the game then regardless of how well you play, and its clear you play well, you are gonna end up in very difficult territory.
gl
Dave
I have to disagree.
Say I am all-in against a flush draw twice and my hand holds up both times. The flush is 2/1 to hit. The law of probability says that if I take on a flush draw for a third time I am riding my luck. I don't have a set rule for coming off, but I normally come off after a short session so that I don't have the chance to be outdrawn, and also so that my concentration doesn't dip. It's stood me in good stead over the year so far, I'm not cut out to sit here for 8 hours at a time playing. As long as this brings good results in the long term I imagine I will most probably stick with it.
I might be on the wrong lines here, but I assume that's what you were talking about?
Dave
alright pommo
keep going mate, you sound like too good a player to let this keep getting you down.
Do you not fancy playing stt/mtt's as a break from your NL cash games? If the cash games are such a grind for you, maybe a change would be good for you. Pokerstars have some highstakes stts that would interest you. $300,$500, $1000 stts that run fairly regular each night. And every Sunday they run a $200 buy-in $500,000 gaurtd MTT that usually attracts about 3500 people and some hefty payouts to the winners. After your success in Dublin i am sure you would do well in these.
hope your luck changes though!!!!
Dave,
Do the cards remember the previous two hands?
I'm in a funny spot here. You are clearly much more successful than me. And I don't know you from Adam. SO any advice I give you looks a bit Internet-stylee envious. And who the fuck am I to give advice?
But everything you've said in response to me is heinously wrong.
Let me put it into two other questions:
1. If the law of averages mean what you say, does that mean you should stay longer if you havent been hitting your draws, as that means that you are now more likley to hit?
2. Can you see what will happen if you keep quiting after short winning sessions but staying for long losing ones when youare not running as good as you are this year?
Dave
This post has been removed by a blog administrator.
Hi Dave,
After reading yesterday's entry in your blog, it's seems that you are experiencing a lull in your enthusiasm? TBH this was going to happen after the high of Dublin, peaks and troughs mate. I was discussing your success on another forum and a member made this comment, which stuck in my mind, "takes balls to be able to handle the massive swings when playing for a living, much respect." Without sounding too condescending, you are still relatively new to this, and only time and experience will see you weathering these "less successful" periods, without this loss of zeal.
Take it easy pal,
R-R.
dpommo,
no luck man, i agree with some of big daves points but also see where u are coming from, but at the end of the day if the way you play works for you why change it?
How can Rayvon get all his chips in like that on a flush or straight draw, surely that cannot be profitable play over time chasing like that?
anyway ATB
PJC
I'm struggling to believe what I'm reading here dpommo. You're a great player and an intelligent man I'd assume, surely you know that by the laws of probability each event is independent, so the fact that you've hit two flush draws in a row has no relevance when going for a third one.
It's human nature to think "oh i've missed my last five draws so one must be due" but you know probability doesn't work like that so I don't think you should let it affect your game.
Saying that the short sessions seem to be a good thing for you so maybe its a good thing that you are justifying them in this way!
Hello Dave and Big Dave,
I've got to agree with what Big Dave has said regarding probability. Variance doesn't remember who it 'owes'. Lucky players can be rewarded time and time again. Conversely if you haven't hit a flush with your last eight flush draws you are still 2/1 to hit the next time.
DP I am sure you know this intuitively but perhaps you haven't thought through the laws of probability before, particularly regarding the independence of individual trials (each deal) at the poker table.
Good luck, hope you bounce back from this tiny blip and please do not be tilting!
To all,
I know that each event is independant and that the last deal can have no effect whatsoever on the next. Reading my comments it does sound like I haven't got a clue lol.
I like to come off before I get outdrawn horribly if possible, mainly because of the effect it has mentally. If I'm £3000 up and then the next minute I'm even due to an outdraw, it doesn't make the rest of the session very easy to play properly. Thus I would rather come off £X up and not play a long session. I used to be able to control tilt very well, but I think because the £10/£20 is harder that previous levels I've played, it can look like an uphill struggle when your profits are wiped out and you have to start again for the day after 3 hours.
It might be a weird way of looking at things, but if the outdraws happen early it's a lot easier to deal with because I have a lot less time and effort invested at that point. Some people can play all day and keep the same focus, but I'm afraid online I'm best suited to short and sharp sessions :(
Pommo, remember where you built your wages to get the roll that you have (without the EPT).
You say that luck is a large factor, but whilst comfortable at your level, you are playing against many players of similar standard I would imagine. I assume all these pots are on 10/20? If so, then why not reduce the luck factor by heading back to 2/5 & 5/10 for games that you KNOW you can beat? I realise that winning £500 in a pot when you are use to playing for much more is tough, but you have far more discipline than most and could easily achieve 1k in those rooms per day.
Simple maths example (sorry if its a little crude but you know what I mean): If you win 6*1k days and lose 1*2k per week you are 4k up. If you win 5 days @ 3k and lose 2days @ 6k then you win less for risking more.
Dave,
Well done in responding to the critics...its not easy when everyone is saying what a turkey you are on your own blog. In your case, this must be made easier by laying on a bed of crisp £50s, drinking Courvosier with your hip-hop stylee beatches. Sigh.
THe point I was alluding to is the old poker phrase of "Eating like a Bird, Shitting like an Elephant." This is what happens to the short-spell player if he's always sucking up short wins but battling out against big losses.
You should see the acquistion of playing tilt free for long sessions as a vital skill to acquire...not a well, whatever. There is no doubt that you make more money the longer you play. And the longer you play with more money in front of you, this *more* is compounded.
(You can actually see this on some games - I'm thinking the 10-20 PLO on Stars - where winning players leave their stacks in play when the game breaks up, hoping to come back in X hours later and find the game has rebuilt around them again and their monster stack.)
gl
Dave D
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